| Question | Short answer |
|---|---|
| When does collection probability start to collapse | After day 90, and sharply after month 12 |
| Hard silence threshold | 21 days of no response to a direct written inquiry |
| Maximum informal reminders before escalation | Two or three. Beyond that signals weakness. |
| Short-limitation jurisdictions (Germany, Poland, Canada, China) | Instruct by month 6 |
| Medium-limitation jurisdictions (France, Spain, Netherlands, Switzerland, UAE) | Instruct by month 9 to 12 |
| Long-limitation jurisdictions (Italy, Mexico) | Month 12 to 18 still workable |
| In-house break-even | Claims under USD 5,000 usually stay in-house |
| Outsource trigger for claims USD 5,000 to 50,000 | 60 to 90 days past due |
| UAE security cheque bounce | Instruct immediately, do not wait |
The decay curve nobody prints on the invoice
Most credit policies treat delinquency as linear. An invoice is 30 days late, then 60, then 90, and the assumption is that the probability of collection drops by a similar percentage at each step. Operational data tells a different story. The curve is non-linear. The drop between month 3 and month 6 is steeper than the drop between month 1 and month 3, and the drop after month 12 is steeper still.| Age bucket | Expected collection probability | Marginal loss vs previous bucket |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 30 days past due | ~95% | baseline |
| 31 to 60 days | ~90% | 5 points |
| 61 to 90 days | ~80% | 10 points |
| 91 to 180 days | ~70% | 10 points |
| 6 to 12 months | ~60% | 10 points |
| 12 to 24 months | ~50% | 10 points |
| Over 24 months | below 40% | 10+ points |
For uncontested B2B debts, collection probability decays non-linearly with invoice age. Instruct an agency once any of three triggers fires, or by month 6 to 12 depending on the jurisdiction's limitat
The three triggers that override "wait and see"
There is a respectable argument for patience at 30 days. There is no respectable argument for patience once one of the following three triggers has fired. Each of them signals a change in the underlying facts, not just a delay in payment. Trigger one: hard silence. Twenty-one days with no response to a direct written inquiry, where "direct" means a named contact, a specific invoice reference, and a clear question requiring an answer. Silence after a direct inquiry is not a delay. It is a position. The debtor has decided that ignoring you is cheaper than engaging, and every additional day of silence reinforces that decision. Twenty-one days is the operational threshold because it is long enough to accommodate a genuine holiday or illness and short enough not to grant a second full month of free financing. Trigger two: a change in the debtor's circumstances. Reported layoffs. An unannounced office move. A director change filed at the commercial register. A credit rating downgrade. A late filing of annual accounts. Any of these is a signal that the debtor's internal situation has shifted, and that claims currently in the "friendly reminder" pile are about to compete with far more urgent ones. The information asymmetry works against you. By the time a change shows up in the public record, insiders have known for weeks. Trigger three: third-party indicators. A competitor mentions the debtor is also late with them. A trade credit insurer reduces or withdraws the limit. A freight forwarder refuses further deliveries without prepayment. These are external voters pricing in the same risk you are pricing in. If three independent parties are adjusting their exposure, the appropriate response is not to be the last one holding a standard 30-day invoice.How long does a company have to wait before sending you to collections?
In the B2B context there is no statutory waiting period. A creditor may instruct a collection agency the day after the invoice falls due, provided the contract is clear and the invoice is uncontested. The practical threshold in most jurisdictions is two or three informal reminders plus a formal notice of default, which typically lands between day 30 and day 60 past due. This is where most creditors overshoot. The instinct is to send a fourth or fifth reminder because "the customer always paid eventually". But each additional informal reminder signals that the consequence is another letter, not a lawyer. By the third reminder, the debtor has already learned your rhythm. The correct ceiling is two or three informal contacts, then a default notice, then external escalation.What is the 7 7 7 rule for collections?
The "7 7 7 rule" is a consumer-collection framing that describes three seven-day cycles of contact before escalation. It is not a statute and it is not a commercial standard. It is shorthand from a specific training tradition. For B2B creditors it is not a useful rule because commercial claims operate on day counts tied to the limitation clock, the payment order procedure available in the debtor's jurisdiction, and the contract's dispute-resolution clauses. A B2B creditor should ignore the 7 7 7 framing and build a calendar around day 7, day 14, day 21 (the silence trigger), day 30 (formal default notice), and day 60 to 90 (external escalation for mid-size claims).The ideal window by jurisdiction
The upper bound on patience is not an arbitrary month number. It is the interruption-of-limitation clock in the debtor's jurisdiction. Short-limitation jurisdictions punish delay heavily. Long-limitation jurisdictions offer more runway but the probability decay still applies.| Jurisdiction | Commercial limitation period | Instruct by | Key escalation point |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 3 years | Month 6 | Mahnverfahren can issue in 4 to 6 weeks from filing |
| Poland | 3 years for business claims | Month 6 | Nakaz zaplaty payment order |
| Canada (most provinces) | 2 years | Month 4 to 6 | Small claims and superior court filings |
| China | 3 years | Month 6 | Written demand interrupts limitation |
| France | 5 years | Month 9 to 12 | Injonction de payer |
| Spain | 5 years | Month 9 to 12 | Proceso monitorio |
| Netherlands | 5 years | Month 9 to 12 | Written summons interrupts limitation |
| Switzerland | 5 or 10 years depending on claim | Month 9 to 12 | Betreibung via office of debt enforcement |
| UAE | 5 years for commercial claims | Month 9 to 12, immediate on bounced security cheque | Cheque as executive instrument |
| Italy | 10 years general | Month 12 to 18 | Decreto ingiuntivo 30 to 60 days to issue |
| Mexico | 10 years commercial | Month 12 to 18 | Juicio ejecutivo mercantil |
In-house or outsourced: the break-even by claim size
Waiting is only half the question. The other half is whether the claim should ever leave the credit desk. Three tiers, each with a different economic logic.| Claim size | Default approach | Outsource when |
|---|---|---|
| Under USD 5,000 | In-house, two to three reminders plus default notice | After 90 days, or earlier if a cross-border element increases friction |
| USD 5,000 to 50,000 | In-house up to 60 days, then external | 60 to 90 days past due, or immediately on any of the three triggers |
| USD 50,000 to 500,000 | Early external instruction | By day 45, because the contingency economics justify fast-tracking |
| Over USD 500,000 | Intelligence-led approach from day 1 of delinquency | Immediately on first missed payment, with parallel legal preparation |
How InterStation handles an early-stage cross-border collection
1. Intake and intelligence check within 24 hours. Confirm the debtor's current legal form, directors, registered address, and limitation clock. Identify any public signals that correspond to the three triggers. 2. Characterise the claim. Uncontested, contested, partially disputed, or contested-in-bad-faith. This determines whether the case goes to amicable collection, direct legal preparation, or a parallel track. 3. First amicable contact within 48 hours of intake. A written and telephone approach in the debtor's working language, referencing the specific invoice, the contractual due date, and the consequence of continued silence. 4. Escalation calendar tied to jurisdiction. For short-limitation jurisdictions, the amicable window is tight and the legal preparation starts in parallel. For longer-limitation jurisdictions, the amicable phase can run 21 to 30 days before pivoting. 5. Legal instruction with full file handover. Where amicable collection does not produce payment or a binding arrangement, the file is handed to jurisdiction-specific counsel with all evidence, translations, and a documented chain of communications, so no time is lost rebuilding the case.Information-gain section: the compounding cost of one more month
Here is the data point competitors do not publish. If a claim sits at month 3 with a 90% expected collection probability and the credit manager waits another three months to instruct, the expected value of the same claim at month 6 is roughly 70%. On a USD 100,000 claim, that is USD 20,000 of expected value lost to a decision to send one more reminder. That is not a contingency fee. That is pure value destruction, with no invoice and no counterparty. Every additional month of waiting past the trigger is a silent debit against the creditor's own P&L. This is why InterStation treats the timing decision as an [intelligence operation rather than an administrative escalation](/blog/interstation-international-debt-collection-intelligence). The question is not whether to wait. It is whether any of the three triggers has already fired, and if so, how many days of expected value have already been quietly written off.How long can you legally be chased for a debt?
In commercial contexts, the answer is the applicable limitation period, which ranges from two years in some Canadian provinces to ten years in Italy and Mexico. The clock can be interrupted by formal acknowledgement from the debtor, by a written demand in some jurisdictions, and by the commencement of legal proceedings in all of them. A creditor who instructs an agency before limitation expires has a workable file. A creditor who waits past expiry has a moral claim and not much else. This is the single hardest deadline in the decision, and it is why the jurisdiction table above is organised around the limitation clock rather than around probability alone.How long before debt collectors take action?
Once instructed, a commercial collection agency typically contacts the debtor inside 48 hours. The amicable window is usually 21 to 45 days depending on the jurisdiction and the complexity of the file. Legal escalation, where required, follows a jurisdiction-specific timetable, with payment order procedures in countries like Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland producing enforceable titles in weeks rather than months when the file is clean.What is the 7 7 7 rule for collections?
The 7 7 7 rule is a consumer-collection training shorthand describing three seven-day contact cycles before escalation. It is not a statute and it does not apply to B2B collection, where timing is driven by the limitation clock, the payment order procedure in the debtor's jurisdiction, and the contract's dispute-resolution clauses.
How long does a company have to wait before sending you to collections?
In B2B contexts there is no statutory waiting period. A creditor may instruct a collection agency the day after the invoice falls due. The practical threshold is two or three informal reminders plus a formal default notice, which usually lands between day 30 and day 60 past due.
How long can you legally be chased for a debt?
Commercial limitation periods range from two years in some Canadian provinces to ten years in Italy and Mexico. The clock can be interrupted by debtor acknowledgement, written demand in some jurisdictions, or the commencement of legal proceedings. The ideal instruction window is set by this clock, not by an arbitrary month count.
How long before debt collectors take action?
A commercial collection agency typically makes first contact inside 48 hours of instruction. The amicable phase runs 21 to 45 days depending on jurisdiction and file complexity, after which legal escalation follows a jurisdiction-specific timetable using payment order procedures where available.
How long does a company have to wait before sending you to collections?
There is no statutory minimum waiting period for commercial debts. Best practice is to escalate to a third-party agency after 45 to 60 days of unpaid invoice and no substantive response to at least two formal reminders. Waiting longer than 90 days without action sharply reduces the recovery probability as the case ages.